Wadhams Says Rounds Has Rebounded – Really in This Political Whispers

South Dakota Republican strategist Dick Wadhams says the recent poll numbers showing former Gov. Mike Rounds at 48 percent, Democrat Rick Weiland at 24 percent and independent Larry Pressler are real numbers.

I asked Wadhams if there was any push polling (chumming the waters with negative information about opponents) before asking the "who will you vote for" question and he said "no."

He added that Glen Bolger of Public Opinion Strategies, Rounds' pollster since he ran for governor in 2002 is typically been on the money, knows South Dakota well and isn't afraid to give clients "bad" numbers if that is indeed what they say.

Also, Bolger uses real people to call other real people rather than the easier but cheaper dial pad polling. As another GOP operative told me, some people will just hit "1" on every question just to get through it. The source says he adds another 3-4 percent to dial pad polls.

I'm not convinced that dial pad polls like Nielson Brothers Polling uses is any worse than live people but I understand their argument.

When I asked Wadhams how Rounds made up so much ground (about 14 points) in just a couple weeks (from 34 or 37 percent or so in polling a few weeks ago), Wadhams says he think voters have heard enough about the EB-5 scandal that's dogged Rounds and are seeing Pressler and Weiland for who they are--Obama supporters, in Wadham's appraisal.

Such is the power of negative TV ads. You all say you hate them, dear readers and listeners, but you are persuaded by them.

And Wadhams did admit that Pressler had a "boomlet" in the last round of polling. But that "boomlet" has gone "bust" according to Wadhams.

Regardless, with KELOLAND-TV and the Argus Leader about the reveal their U.S. Senate polling Monday and other polls about to be announced or in the field now, we should know with some certainty this week who is likely to win Election Day.

Barring, of course, an "October Surprise" on EB-5.